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Forum: Australian Bubble Forum

Forums->Australian Bubble Forum->RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months

blueeyedpop	RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months
	I've been lurking for a while, happy for this to be the title of my first post http://www.smh.com.au/business/home-prices-drop-for-first-time-in-17-months-20100730-10yup.html
	on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [03:16 UTC] reads: 2135

Posted messages Messages 10 20 30 All Style Plain Threaded Headers Only Sort Newest first Oldest first Find author message Macster  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [04:02 UTC] So we're basically back to 2008. They say that supply will pickup during Spring/Summer. If demand does not keep pace, well.... author message bps  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [04:25 UTC] we are hardly back to 2008, no where near it. I think its still a little premature to bring back up 'The correction imminent or already Underway' blog that usually comes out when any negative news reported. author message homes4aussies  Re: Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [06:45 UTC] Missed comments by you, barns and your mates on this thread.... http://www.bubblepedia.net.au/tiki-view_forum_thread.php?comments_parentId=7205&topics_offset=12&topics_sort_mode=lastPost_desc&forumId=7 For posters who have been prolific here over the last few months your absence from the thread was noteable - I guess it was not what you wanted to chat about, and best to try and bury under threads rather than promote it, hey???? author message erutangis  Re: Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [09:08 UTC] > we are hardly back to 2008, no where near it. > > I think its still a little premature to bring back up 'The correction imminent or already Underway' blog that usually comes out when any negative news reported. Yeah, but where is the fun in that? author message homes4aussies  Re: Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [10:01 UTC] Just saw why you were so sensitive, basispoints - the biggest monthly fall since April 2008 - no wonder you are a bit tetchy Don't worry - bubbles never pop - markets never revert to the mean, they always find newer and higher trends - and house prices never, ever, ever fall author message blueeyedpop  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [04:32 UTC] I'd like to see 3 or even 6 months of declining prices before calling a top. But any sustained decline has gotta start with 1 month, obviously, so I'm happy to report it. author message SafetyBear  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [06:18 UTC] so the 8.5% increase in Melbourne for March-June? as reported in the media a couple of weeks ago was what, exactly? I agree with the poster in the comments who suggested this sudden piece of doom spruikery is related to certain decisions on interest rates being imminent. I hope this is the start of the end though. I'm off to buy onions to help with those crocodile tears upon hearing the usual hard luck stories from pathetic greedy bastards who got burned. author message blueeyedpop  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [06:23 UTC] But the weak inflation numbers earlier in the week already made next week's interest rate decision a given: no move. The contrarian in me is encouraged that even the hard core bears are mistrustful of anything that supports the bearish case. When all the bears have given up, it would be sure sign that market has topped. Sentiment and markets forever lurch from one extreme to the other. author message SafetyBear  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [06:30 UTC] I gave up years ago. That's why I have to work for a living. author message pb123  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [06:38 UTC] bps What Macster actually meant is we are revisiting the 2008 type environment when the prices where looking wobbly just before the grants were thrown in. I hope some of the Liberal strategists pick this and spin it to thrash Labour. I am sure Folks in Western Australia who bought start of this year and are overleveraged are not too happy with this outcome , I wonder if this would have any bearing on how they vote, it will all depend on how the libs spin it. As far as the medium term outlook is concerned , I dont think we'll see big price drops this year . It will be favourable to be some buyers who are willing to tone down their expectations on suburb or size of dwelling. author message hojusaram  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [08:22 UTC] I think most people are missing the significance of a debt driven economy that suddenly decides not to take on more debt. http://delusionaleconomics.blogspot.com/2010/07/oz-real-estate-we-warned-you.html The government has ridden the populous to the edge of lunacy, now it is time to pay the price. author message Adelaide  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [09:16 UTC] Didn't I read the other day that prices were up for last quarter? Why are they now saying they're down??? Does anyone know? author message Hilltop  Re: Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [11:08 UTC] > Didn't I read the other day that prices were up for last quarter? Why are they now saying they're down??? Does anyone know? For the quarter (Apr-Jun) its up. For the month of June its down. author message Macster  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [09:23 UTC] > we are hardly back to 2008, no where near it. > I think its still a little premature to bring back up 'The correction imminent or already Underway' blog that usually comes out when any negative news reported. I was referring more to the following piece from the article: "Median national home prices fell by 0.8 per cent in June, in raw terms, from a 0.6 per cent increase in May, according to RP Data-Rismark? figures. It was the largest monthly fall in home prices since April 2008, shaving the median national dwelling price by $3000 for the month to $465,000." Sorry, should have been more specific. While we may not be where we were in 2008 numbers wise, sentiment wise, it's looking like '08. I'm not calling it a "correction" or "bust" yet until we get atleast 3 consecutive months of depreciation. By that time, I would reckon confidence would have gotten negative enough to basically ignite the fuse from there so to speak. While it can pick up again, I see little reason for it to happen outside another government porkulous rollout. Throughout most of this year we have seen a steady suppression on the housing market. First it was "surging" across just about the whole country, then it was flattening (or "tappering off" to use one out of Chris Joye), then declines in WA and Qld and flattening out elsewhere, and now declines (albeit modest ones) across most states with WA and Qld witnessing consecutive declines for consecutive months. What will come next? I'm not saying anything is certain (and as we would all know, Oz housing seems to have a knack for defying the odds), but you see where I'm going here? They say Spring brings an increase in housing activity along with the warmer weather, but while we will likely see an increase in listings, I find it somwehat doubtful the warmer climate will somehow bring about a housing fever outbreak that'll not only keep pace with listings but also exceed it to kick off the market again. I've stated before that Winter will see confidence wane followed by a series of prolonged and slow declines which will accelerate over the next year or so (after that, who knows) as it's confidence and sentiment that changes first, then the market follows. author message SafetyBear  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [09:30 UTC] > Didn't I read the other day that prices were up for last quarter? Why are they now saying they're down??? Does anyone know? That 8.5% second quarter rise in Melbourne. Still trying to work out how that fits in. Or indeed if it was a total lie. author message yokel  Re: Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [09:41 UTC] > > Didn't I read the other day that prices were up for last quarter? Why are they now saying they're down??? Does anyone know? > > > That 8.5% second quarter rise in Melbourne. Still trying to work out how that fits in. Or indeed if it was a total lie. Been observing this site and comments in response to housing price articles for some time. Not drawn into the glee or hope on either side...while still believing house prices are unsustainable.... but do note that the venom expressed by many posters is symptomatic of social unrest/distress/divide. One thing that does strike me as peculiar, is that both sides quote statistics from vested interests to validate their claims. Is there any particular reason why RP Data should be given so much credence? author message Adelaide  Re: Re: Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [09:54 UTC] Yokel Regarding your comment: One thing that does strike me as peculiar, is that both sides quote statistics from vested interests to validate their claims. Is there any particular reason why RP Data should be given so much credence? You have a point, but what choice do we have? Sit back like fence sitters just nodding along with whoever is around at the time...... It's less risky, but there are way too many fence sitters in modern a-political society. I have seen people get stats from just about anywhere they can. From the ABS to those with more vested interests (such as providers sponsored by the real estate industry or developers.) Most of those who report stats in Australia have a vested interest in inflating price reports. So that is the skew of the data in general. We need to agitate for better stats for the public. With the ABS budget getting cut more and more every year, this is difficult. author message Adelaide  Re: Re: Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [09:59 UTC] Yokel Alan Kohler just said RP data is the most reliable provider of stats in the REI... not that I trust Kohler that much author message Macster  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [10:01 UTC] Well the article that posted increases was for the quarter (which sounds about right), so you could have say increases for the first 2 months, then a decline for the third, but overall an increase for the entire quarter. This is the FIRST monthly decrease in almost a year and a half afterall (and a modest one at that). As for RP Data, RP/CJ have been known to be very bullish on property as their business depends on its health. It's one thing to use a claim from a bear to validate a bearish perspective, its another to use irrefutable stats from a widely known bull. When a bull comes out with an article such as the latest with all its bearish overtones and their own stats to back it up, it speaks twice as loud as a bear making a bearish claim, especially to the bulls themselves. author message hojusaram  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [10:32 UTC] I have to back Macster on this one. CJ has been a well known property bull and is well known on business spectator for spruiking like a mad man about property, investment in property, property versus sharers, property based derivatives etc etc. In the last 6 weeks, every single one of his posts has been devoid of property news, he has suddenly decided to take the "global view" and talk about the "peoples bank" and other such topics. He is a bull without a cause, and to anyone who has been following his spruikings for a period of time they will have noticed he has become much more humble in the last month or two. I commmented the other day http://delusionaleconomics.blogspot.com/2010/07/death-of-spruiker.html that the worm had turned. I actually generally feel that he believes in what he is doing, but he too has been blinded by the delusion of property. I think that maybe in the last month or so he is beginning to see the light on what he has created. Well maybe I am being too kind, but it doesn't matter anymore.. The reaper is in the house, I hope everyone is prepared. author message Hilltop  Re: Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [11:18 UTC] I have shorted CBA.AX using trading warrant a few days ago. If the bubble burst CBA will be in deep sh_t then I will make a small buck. Don't take it as a recommendation as I may lose all if the bubble continues to grow. author message Adelaide  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [11:10 UTC] Good call hojusaram!! You're very observant. author message SafetyBear  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Sat 31 of Jul, 2010 [03:10 UTC] > Cards on table. I've been wavering on this, but. I'm aboard. I'm calling correction too. Strap in nice and tight boys and girls things are going to get really interesting now. author message Macster  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Sat 31 of Jul, 2010 [03:18 UTC] Not yet for me, not until it becomes a trend. However, it is looking rather bleak for housing with a China slowdown still very much on the cards, independent rate rises very probable from the banks after the election, the Spring/Summer seasons that bring an increase in listings, etc. We'll see how it pans out. author message jwb  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Sat 31 of Jul, 2010 [03:20 UTC] it'll flatten before it dives... california went from 10%+ growth for years to 2%, then 0%, then it dropped 38% in 2008. author message barns  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Sun 01 of Aug, 2010 [21:53 UTC] Missed comments by you, barns and your mates on this thread.... http://www.bubblepedia.net.au/tiki-view_forum_thread.php?comments_parentId=7205&topics_offset=12&topics_sort_mode=lastPost_desc&forumId=7 For posters who have been prolific here over the last few months your absence from the thread was noteable - I guess it was not what you wanted to chat about, and best to try and bury under threads rather than promote it, hey???? H4A - sorry I've been away skiing on my lifestyle loan proceeds. I'll start posting once I clear some work I have to get through. author message barns  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Mon 02 of Aug, 2010 [00:12 UTC] Monday morning comments and predictions below: The June month decline is good news. It keeps the heat out of prices, allows consolidation of price levels and generally demonstrates un-bubblelike behaviour (ie, there is no bubble - just high prices as the Forbes' articles conclude). The house in my street that was up for auction on Saturday sold in the low 800s prior to auction. To me this shows soft market conditions, as the main reason that an agent will push for a sale prior to auction is because they don't believe they are going to get the necessary competitive tension at the auction. I think we'll find that July will be flat or down as well and August too (due to the election - no one is going to want to have an auction on election day and also people will put off starting open home campaigns until after then). People around here will get excited for a couple of months. However, after the election (irrespective of result) there will be a surge in listings and house hunting (which will happily coincide with Spring) and there is likely to be modest gains for the balance of the calendar year. This is due to continued steady employment prospects and zero or 1 only 0.25% RBA rate rise during that period. I also believe medium/long term that outer-ring properties (this also includes property in the smaller capital cities) are over-valued relatively and will underperform for a couple of years. Due to the price rises of the past 18 months the differential between the 'premium' areas and the 'less premium' has closed too much. I'm not sure how this will be rectified, one of; declines in less premium areas, stagnation in less premium areas and modest rises in premium areas or premium areas increasing in another lurch. author message squirrell  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Mon 02 of Aug, 2010 [02:24 UTC] lets all give up any pretensions to having the faintest clue what will happen to houses in the short term. All we can say for sure is they are obscenely over priced, the yields are pitiful, and the only way a house purchase can be justified financially is based on an expectation of unsustainable long term capital gains. Long term this market will fall by 40-60% in real terms. How will it get there??? I have no idea, and neither does anyone on this site. author message jwb  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Mon 02 of Aug, 2010 [02:29 UTC] The desperate sellers will set the price and their numbers will increase quickly. Once the first one takes a discount offer in an area than that is the new benchmark buyers will work from for similar properties. author message agg  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Mon 02 of Aug, 2010 [02:40 UTC] I live in the south of Sydney (Sutherland Shire). There doesn't appear to be any sign of prices dropping around here. I went to an open house on Saturday with a friend who is a property valuer. He was telling me stories of houses in the last couple of weeks that sold at auction $25 - $50k over the reserve. Met a young couple at the open house who owned (... or the bank does!) a unit and were looking to upgrade to a house. They were lamenting how difficult it has been at auctions over the last couple of months because prices just go zooming up to ridiculous levels. author message Adelaide  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Mon 02 of Aug, 2010 [08:17 UTC] agg, It is only very very early days in a price unwinding that will take years. It will gain pace at some point. It is not noticable at the moment. And sure there will be suburbs that record positive growth for some time. But the message in the medium term is get out of RE investment stat. author message yokel  Re: Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Mon 02 of Aug, 2010 [08:53 UTC] > agg, > > It is only very very early days in a price unwinding that will take years. It will gain pace at some point. It is not noticable at the moment. You sure about that? Another contributor was kind enough to post the 31July auction results for Brisbane. 6%??? ...and if you look at the details, the sole property sold was sold prior to auction. It has always amused me that regardless of the sale method, RP Data always claim it as "sold at auction"...as long as it had some exposure as auction property. I don't think so, personally...... Perhaps the RE industry has a vested interest in promoting the shadowy values of auctions, where we have the dubious integrity of "vendor bids" and spurious market values promulgated by unscrupulous agents. I am in Toowoomba, Qld, and there is a definite paucity of buyers. My friends in Brisbane report the same. author message DSchnauzer  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Wed 04 of Aug, 2010 [05:45 UTC] Ah you bears are hilarious. RPData shows a monthly increase: "no no RPData can't be trusted, vested interest blah blah. I know better from looking at the 4 properties that sold near my house and old Billy down at the milk bar who told me he knew a guy who lost a bajillion dollars on his house!". RPData shows a monthly decrease of 0.7%: "The bubble is bursting! Its irrefutable now, what are you spruikers going to do! What a massive slump! Its the end of the world etc etc" author message Macster  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Wed 04 of Aug, 2010 [06:48 UTC] > Ah you bears are hilarious. > RPData shows a monthly increase: "no no RPData can't be trusted, vested interest blah blah. I know better from looking at the 4 properties that sold near my house and old Billy down at the milk bar who told me he knew a guy who lost a bajillion dollars on his house!". > RPData shows a monthly decrease of 0.7%: "The bubble is bursting! Its irrefutable now, what are you spruikers going to do! What a massive slump! Its the end of the world etc etc" Did you just come into this topic with a preconceived assumption that it'll be full of bears having a parade? Reread the posts why dont you because I'm seeing mainly cautious optimism. Who here exactly is calling it an irrefutable burst??? author message pennypacker  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Thu 05 of Aug, 2010 [03:16 UTC] I'll tell you why the bubble can burst now.. Because the last of the FHVB recipients has just bought their McMansion and is sitting down to watch TT with a VB to celebrate. The market could now stagnate for years as all the 'true believers' are done for the time being, and everyone else can see the situation for what it is. Pack up the moon and dismantle the sun. Enjoy! author message DSchnauzer  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Thu 05 of Aug, 2010 [04:35 UTC] Aye sorry Macster when i say "you bears", I am referring to a few specific posters, not the whole thread in general. You are absolutely right that many on this thread and forums have a well thought out and balanced take on data as it becomes available. But then on the other hand there is this: "Don't worry - bubbles never pop - markets never revert to the mean, they always find newer and higher trends - and house prices never, ever, ever fall!" "The government has ridden the populous to the edge of lunacy, now it is time to pay the price." "I'm calling correction too. Strap in nice and tight boys and girls things are going to get really interesting now." "The reaper is in the house, I hope everyone is prepared." "everyone else can see the situation for what it is. Pack up the moon and dismantle the sun." author message SafetyBear  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Thu 05 of Aug, 2010 [05:40 UTC] I can't belive you missed the one about the fat lady booking September to record her new album, DSchnauzer ;-) author message pennypacker  Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Thu 05 of Aug, 2010 [06:41 UTC] HAHA nice! DSchnauzer your arguments have more holes than Swiss Cheese. RPData apply their special brand of hedonics to come up with numbers that are consistently optimistic when compared to medians. So their data can't be trusted. When their numbers go -ve it just means that the reality is even worse. author message cooler  Re: Re: RP Data - Home Prices Drop For First Time in 17 months on: Thu 05 of Aug, 2010 [09:46 UTC] > DSchnauzer your arguments have more holes than Swiss Cheese. In fact I don't think he has put forward a counter argument yet ... unless you call dismissing most of the thread as crazy one eyed bears an argument

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