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Forum: Australian Bubble Forum

Forums->Australian Bubble Forum->What Goes Around Comes Around

bluehumaninavacuum	What Goes Around Comes Around
	Australian home buyers don't have any idea what's happening around the world. It's interesting to look at the viewer demographics on YouTube? housing videos because it supports my argument that Australians don't know, or care, about the broader 'global' economy. VIDEO 1. House wouldn't sell at 50% off? Real Estate never goes down? DEMOGRAPHICS. Next to no views in Australia. Most popular age group (45-64). LINK. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgtpxBPYnvE&feature=related VIDEO 2. Collapse Update from California. DEMOGRAPHICS. Next to no views in Australia. Most popular age group (45-64). LINK. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRngAdsJTu4&feature=related VIDEO 3. Ireland Faces Total Economic Collapse. DEMOGRAPHICS. Hardly any views. None in Australia. Most popular age group (35-64). LINK. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQoRdzSP8vA&feature=related VIDEO 4. The Crash of the U.S. Housing Market? DEMOGRAPHICS. There are no demos for this video. But it's Glenn Beck and it's interesting. WHEN I WATCH THESE VIDEOS, I HONESTLY CAN'T BELIEVE HOW NAIVE AUSTRALIANS ARE.
	on: Thu 29 of Jul, 2010 [10:13 UTC] reads: 1722

Posted messages Messages 10 20 30 All Style Plain Threaded Headers Only Sort Newest first Oldest first Find author message SED  Re: What Goes Around Comes Around on: Thu 29 of Jul, 2010 [10:26 UTC] not surprising that many people on this board are from overseas or have lived overseas, myself included author message bluehumaninavacuum  Re: Re: What Goes Around Comes Around on: Thu 29 of Jul, 2010 [12:34 UTC] Just to avoid any confusion, I'm Australian (Melburnian) and, as a Bubblepedia reader, I am very much a contrarian amongst my local friends. author message dpmartin43  Re: What Goes Around Comes Around on: Thu 29 of Jul, 2010 [22:53 UTC] Yes I try to tell all the dumb indebted aussies ( I'm from NZ ) at my work that a collapse in the post and I get treated like a raving lucatic. We have a woman here that owns a ton of investment properties, she is always whinging she has no money. She is also, very sllllooowww...really dumb. I know another guy that recently got himself a 1.3 million dollar mortgage. He works at my work, starts before 6 am, then leaves at 2pm to start his second job...I asked him “why are you doing this man?” He goes, “I'm doing it for my family”...!!!, OK so your family really needs a 1.5 million dollar house, not to mention his various "investment properties". He also had a heart scare last month, he’s not even 50. Remember these two people are only on about between 65 - 75k I overhear conversations about investment properties and “renos” constantly… How is this going to end? Or will it go on for ever…I think I have gone mad, maybe they are right…but at the back of my mind there is niggling feeling that this thing is on the cusp of collapsing under its own corpulent weight… author message altakoi  Re: What Goes Around Comes Around on: Thu 29 of Jul, 2010 [23:44 UTC] My friends, one of whom is my landlord, remain property optimists but go silent when local properties are regularly passed in at auction for far less than their expected sale value. Its really the "its only worth what you can sell it for, not what you paid for it" penny which I think has not dropped out there in Australia. author message averagebloke  Re: What Goes Around Comes Around on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [00:02 UTC] Dude, I'm going to do you a favour and disagree with you. Things are different here. I thought property went mad about 8 yrs ago and I always thought (rationally) that a slump was just around the corner. But as we all know it never happened. Meanwhile I've learnt that there are many factors that make Oz different to all the other OECD property markets. Such as: Awesome Negative Gearing Scheme's, China buying all our minerals even during a GFC! Relatively low Unemployment, Sickening Overpopulation in our Capital Cities, Rental Shortages, Relatively low Interest rates, No Capital Gains on our Primary residence, First Home Buyers/Vendors Grants, A decline in Public Housing, Both major Political Parties actually encouraging Property Speculation, Lax Foreign Ownership laws, TV's shows like 'Hot Property' that make the madness worse. I'm sure there are alot more. Give Up! You'll be alot happier. author message bluehumaninavacuum  Re: Re: What Goes Around Comes Around on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [06:20 UTC] Average Bloke. Are you Michael of Sydney? If so, it's a pleasure to meet you, sir. author message erutangis  Re: Re: What Goes Around Comes Around on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [09:14 UTC] > Dude, I'm going to do you a favour and disagree with you. > > Things are different here. > The kangaroos will save us!!! author message jc1982  Re: Re: What Goes Around Comes Around on: Sat 31 of Jul, 2010 [23:50 UTC] Awesome Negative Gearing Scheme's, - agreed China buying all our minerals even during a GFC! - so? Relatively low Unemployment, - likely to soon change - refer retail sector Sickening Overpopulation in our Capital Cities, - huh? Have you been to brazil? Rental Shortages, - from where I sit, I see rents falling. Relatively low Interest rates, - compared to where? No Capital Gains on our Primary residence, - agreed First Home Buyers/Vendors Grants, - offset by lower lvrs A decline in Public Housing, - huh? Both major Political Parties actually encouraging Property Speculation, - agreed Lax Foreign Ownership laws, - have you been watching the news? TV's shows like 'Hot Property' that make the madness worse. - agreed author message David  Re: What Goes Around Comes Around on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [00:30 UTC] You are right things are different here, but then they were for every other bubble, just look at those quotes on another current thread. Its a new paradigm is the recurrent theme, and was so in California, Ireland, Florida, UK etc. etc. Also look at the graph I posted showing us way above the trend line, and that is still a much steeper trend than our peers, the other Anglo-Saxon? countries. We will come back to it but more slowly probably, because of all the factors you mention. I have been to a few auctions recently in what was one of Melbourne's hottest areas, and the auctioneer was the only one who spoke during the whole auction, everyone else just stood with their arms folded. All it needs is for a few months of this, a couple of rate rises and more tightening by the banks. It seems that Basel III will be done and dusted in September, which will have the effect of tightening credit for residential next year when it is implemented. author message jwb  Re: What Goes Around Comes Around on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [00:39 UTC] average bloke, wanna buy my mum's place? bought for cash in 1988 for 90k going for 450k if you want it. author message altakoi  Re: What Goes Around Comes Around on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [00:58 UTC] No, I'm quite happy already. If property prices never diminish I will still be a renter, and even if they drop I may not be a buyer. This is just recreation for me and, frankly, what bothers me more is the macroeconomic carnage all the housing credit has done rather than house prices per se. See the Age, I believe, today for a review of what small businesses think about the cost of credit for actually doing business. Australian banks have basically taken the view that a large box in the suburbs is dandy for a few hundred thousand, but an ongoing business which employs people is a poor bet. That is what I most want to see change. author message SafetyBear  Re: What Goes Around Comes Around on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [01:21 UTC] Hold on to it for a couple of weeks jwb and then sell it to dpmartin43's work colleague for 600k. dpmartin43, that guy with the heart scare, working two jobs. Horrible to say to the poor bastard but sucked in. He's on the treadmill to nowhere spending all his energy trying to build comfortable life for what? When he's 80 or something? Mrs SafetyBear? is luckily sensible. We've agreed we're not getting a mortgage of more than 240k (we have 80k deposit) and are actively downscaling our lifestyle to get over a nasty dose of affluenza. No debts, but stuff was getting bought and all of a sudden it was like "Oh crap! It's costing us 2.5 grand just to cover the rent, health insurance, Telstra and bills a month! That's crazy!" author message jwb  Re: What Goes Around Comes Around on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [01:58 UTC] mum won't sell safety but at least she paid cash for the property upfront... she would have gotten 500k in 2006 for it though. author message bluehumaninavacuum  Re: Re: Re: What Goes Around Comes Around on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [06:40 UTC] You are wise, Safety Bear. You know, people (e.g., Average Guy) can go on all day about 'why Australia is different' and they can put forward arguments that, on the surface, appear (illusion) plausible. The fact - the only fact that really matters - is that the average person cannot afford the average house. That's it. Anyone who's sensible and not trying to use housing as an investment, will understand that household debt should not be more than 2.5 times average yearly household income. And that's the end of the story. Forget immigration and negative gearing and all the fluff that, frankly, I'm sick of hearing. I hear this garbage everyday. And you know what? Down here, on the ground, talk is very cheap - especially when I see people with debt levels 20 times above their yearly household income and others using credit cards to pay their council rates. People can argue until they're blue in the face about why housing doesn't fall in value, I'm not becoming a slave until the government chains me up and forcibly makes me one. And how about that guy that works two jobs for a $1.3 million home. I'm sick to death of feeling sorry for these Pavlovian dogs that can't think for themselves. If someone earning 65k buys a $1.3 million 'for their kids', they're either delusional or they have no idea about parenting or love. And they certainly are not normal. By the way, Average Bloke, 'a lot' is two words, not one. author message jwb  Re: What Goes Around Comes Around on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [08:54 UTC] blue is right debt is the issue. I walk around the sydney cbd everyday and have done for the past 12 months. The looks on people's faces has changed a lot. You can see the stress out there trust me. author message dpmartin43  Re: What Goes Around Comes Around on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [11:04 UTC] the really sad thing is i actually like the fella with the 1.3 million dollar mortgage...the poor bastard really believes he is doing the right thing by his family...what is really weird is that everybody else at work sees him as some kind of success because he owns a pad in the eastern suburbs (that's the 1.3 million dollar debt). I told him he's a fool and all he owns is the debt. I even said "mate, where's the title?" he goes "with the bank" I said "you don't own it till you own the title pal, all you own is a pile of stinking debt..." something kind of sunk in and he even agreed, then in the blink of an eye he told me "you have to buy a place..." it's madness here in the land of the wizard of oz... author message bluehumaninavacuum  Re: Re: What Goes Around Comes Around on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [11:11 UTC] Hey DpMartin43?, I must apologise for being so rude when I referred to your $1.3 million house friend. I still think he's crazy, but I want to be nice about it, if you know what I mean. This guy has obviously bought into a falsehood like many, many others. I guess that makes him, in a populist sense, kind of 'normal'. But in my opinion, and with all due respect, he's crazy like the rest of them. And then again, I can't really talk. It's 21:13 on a Friday night and I'm surfing the internet. That's not 'normal' either. author message dpmartin43  Re: What Goes Around Comes Around on: Fri 30 of Jul, 2010 [12:15 UTC] bluehumaninavacuum, no offence taken at all - I agree with you...I may like the man but I in no way wish him well in his investments...I hope he crashes and burns. Just because you like somebody on a personal level doesn't mean that there can be no casualties in war, because I see this as a battle. There has to be a paradigm shift and unfortunatelly for this man he will just have to take a hit. author message averagebloke  Re: What Goes Around Comes Around on: Sat 31 of Jul, 2010 [05:12 UTC] Hi Blue, No I'm not Michael from Sydney. No I'm just a poor fool who stood around like you waiting for the housing market to become 'normal' again... like I said I've waited 8-9 yrs! I've gotten extremely frustrated and depressed about it. I'd like to save you from the same fate. The Housing Market in this country is not logical, you'll just have to accept that and move on. author message jwb  Re: What Goes Around Comes Around on: Sat 31 of Jul, 2010 [20:47 UTC] average, not all of us have been waiting 8 years in fact I only came to the conclusion things were headed for disaster when several of my friends with pathetic savings records and average jobs starting borrowing 500k (plus bonus and parents help) to get into bidding wars to buy shoeboxes last year. all 6 of them recite the mantra's of "rent money is dead money" "get it before you miss out" blah blah blah. when i point out that we bought a 3 bedroom house on the water on a big block in texas for 140K in which the rent covers ALL expenses they can't get their heads around it. if you don't think bubbles can go on for a long time and get very big before they burst then check this out. http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeqrguz/housingbubble/

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