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Forum: Australian Bubble Forum

Forums->Australian Bubble Forum->Too much housing related news everyday

pb123	Too much housing related news everyday
	Have you guys noticed that lately that there is just too many recycled news items about housing. These ones today http://www.theage.com.au/national/banks-put-squeeze-on-housing-20100312-q48d.html http://www.theage.com.au/business/bubble-and-squeak-as-first-home-buyers-feel-the-heat-20100312-q4ad.html
	on: Fri 12 of Mar, 2010 [22:05 UTC] reads: 1978

Posted messages Style Plain Threaded Headers Only Sort Newest first Oldest first Find author message altakoi  Re: Too much housing related news everyday on: Fri 12 of Mar, 2010 [23:47 UTC] I agree, but there is only so much you can say about the business of buying and selling large boxes to be balanced against the pressing need to keep people convinced that it is the most important thing in the country. What get me is that exactly the same routine comments are made about these stories - the younger generation wants to eat their iPods all at once, get in now before prices go up, its nothing compared to 17% interest rates. I do wonder whether the 'debate' about housing has really changed many peoples minds at all - and all I really want is a news story without a comments section that makes me want to bang my computer on the floor. author message Parrotile  Re: Too much housing related news everyday on: Fri 12 of Mar, 2010 [23:48 UTC] Apart from the usual "buy now or forever live in squalor" RE hype in most of these articles, it's very interesting to read the responses (where allowed) - the "Comments" section is usually far more interesting than the main body of the article. Apart from the expected two factions (the "I'm all right with my numerous investment properties", and the "we're NOT alright having to work our butts off just to save a Princes' Ransom of a deposit for a pokey little hole of an apartment), I've noticed a third group - the "we've had enough, so we are leaving Australia for home". Three month's ago there were no responses in this group, but now there are quite a few, and the "additional comments" suggest that it's not just the high cost of housing that's the problem, with social attitudes to "outsiders" now being a major source of discontent. This situation is interesting for the following reasons: 1. Those responding will not comprise the total of those thinking (or actively proceeding) to return home (wherever home originally was); 2. A disillusioned customer tends (on average) to actively tell 25 friends / colleagues / acquaintances of their adverse experiences (in contrast satisfied customers generally tell 5 of less colleagues of their positive experiences). Hence bad news / perceptions have a known tendency to propagate in a community - NOT good news for a Country keen to attract new migrants! 3. Certain critical services (especially Healthcare) are very dependent on overseas-trained staff. In the Hospital I work in the Nursing staff are mainly (> 60%) overseas trained. Those prepared to work night shifts seem to be >80% overseas trained (mainly UK, Eire, Canada, USA). Our Clinicians seem to be mostly oveseas-qualified (India, UK, USA, Poland, China (a significant number, and very highly-represented at Junior Medical Officer level), and Korea). All of our Consultants have had overseas training and experience, and a high proportion (> 75%) are originally non-Australian. 4. This pattern seem to be repeated in other sectors, especially those sectors where wages are traditionally low (hospitality, fast food, retail), so we're very dependent on these individuals for our accepted standard of living: A major efflux of not necessarily highly trained, but certainly highly experienced employees would have an adverse impact on living standards, and on GDP. Thoughts please folks? I'd have thought it a bit difficult for Mr Rudd to attract the "right calibre" of migrant if returning locals are very efficiently doing a back-stabbing exercise re. living as a non Aussie in Australia! author message bluehumaninavacuum  Re: Re: Too much housing related news everyday on: Sat 13 of Mar, 2010 [03:33 UTC] Very interesting, Parrotile. I also find the comments sections far more interesting than the (usually depressing) article. I think there's a fourth kind of contributor that you have forgotten. I'm referring to the very shady comments made by very shady characters. I don't think these comments are just from the "I'm alright with my numerous properties" crowd. I wonder whether they're real estate agents or by the establishment (i.e., bankers). The comments I'm referring to seem to make other people very upset and seem to change the course of responses completely. I sometimes even amuse myself by imagining that that quintessential Neanderthal, Enzo Raimondo, is making some of these comments. Take a look at the last comment I've included from "Jay" in Melbourne - what a wanker. If that isn't real estate agent talk, I don't know what is. Here are some examples: News.com.au "More on struggle street as prices, rates rise" 12 March 2010. "Investor" Posted at 7:51 PM March 12, 2010 I'm buying every house/unit I can find. 12% growth + 4% yield - 8% interest = Happy days ;) Brisbane Times "Median house price surges past $500,000" 8 March 2010. "Michael K" | Brisbane - March 08, 2010, 8:16AM Duncan: The market won't go down ... we're importing 350k people a year and only building 180k homes. The vast majority of these people have a million or two in cash or solid gold and like to live alone in houses, so we're running short by 170k houses a year! And that's not even including the massive population growth by people already here! "Drew." - March 08, 2010, 1:57PM Really, what's the fuss about. If people really want to get on the board with regards to the property market, just pull your finger out and save. Ditch your fancy clothes and expensive cars and save that deposit. Don't earn enough? Do what I do and get a weekend job too. There are always excuses for people that want excuses, and always ways to succeed for people that want to succeed. News.com.au "Couples work twice as long for a house" 7 March 2010 "Jay" of Melbourne Posted at 9:42 PM March 07, 2010 The fact is that the average wage has outpaced inflation and that the surplus is spent on housing(rent or mortgage) This will continue thus housing will continue to double every seven to ten years depending on location. I would buy as soon as possible otherwise you will fall further behind the eight ball." author message jc1982  Re: Re: Re: Too much housing related news everyday on: Sat 13 of Mar, 2010 [05:46 UTC] There is one guy on news.com.au who I would swear to god is a either an RE agent or works for one of the lobby groups. "Michael of Sydney" seems to feel that it is his duty to take part in every discussion about real estate prices. His arguments are always along the line of "if you don't buy now you'll be renting forever". A quick google search shows the following: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/how-we-got-the-rba-wrong-20100203-nbcz.html?comments=36 Michael's comment: Media never ceases to amase. The biggest economy keps their rates at 0, but we are surprised that one of the smallest economies does not hike up interest rate which is already biggest in developed world. Can anyone explain where do they see a recovery? Corporate earnigs are down, business lending down, job ads down. Unemployment improving? Well, 0.1% movement it is basicly means that it is the same. Inflation up? Prices increasing due to the lack of competition, not because incomes increased. Property market is up? What do you expect when nobody is building, but crowds of expats driven back to Australia? The only right way for interest rates is DOWN. RBA has track record of hiking rates when they shall be lowered, and like previous times, unwarranted hikes are going to lead to panic cuts later. http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/demand-but-no-supply-as-prices-head-north-20100303-pj3z.html?comments=56 Michael's comment: Prices are going to go through the roof for a long while now. Developers are under great squeeze - marging are still very slim - mainly due to cumbersome development approval process and financing difficulties. RBA's obsession with interest rate hikes adds even more nervousness - very few are going to risk large amounts of money in this environment - so we stuck with the property shortage for a decade if not longer.. Rising prices, crowds of expats fleeing back to Australia and RBA's rate hikes exert enormous pressure on rents. Paul Eslake was absolutely right predicting "mother of all property booms" back in 2007 . Homeowners are going to be the real winners. http://www.businessday.com.au/business/rates-set-to-jump-regardless-of-rba-experts-20100208-nlsy.html Michael's comment: Believing in interest rate scaremongering is extremely hazardous for your financial health. All 2007 and first half 2008 there was no single day when "experts" did not frighten the public with "double digit" rates. We ended up eith the lowest rates in 50 years. But those who actually allowed themselves to be frightened now have to pay for the home $100K more. To pay $100K after tax you need to earn almost $200K gross. And over the term of the loan this means around $400K difference in interest. You need to be very wealthy to believe in this desperate hype. http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/walking-on-a-wire-stretched-between-stimulus-and-debt-20100218-oiqh.html?comments=47 Michael's comment: I do not know where is "deep uncertainty" about the future. The biggest economy - USA has not solved any of the fundamental problems. Bank bailout that was designed to help banks to lend to each other , businesses and individuals did not work. Lending continues to decline. Instead bailout was lent back to the US Government on really thick margin - hence record deficit and even more obscene Wall St bonuses. Any "signs of life " there are mere convulsions of a dead body. Second economy - Eurozone - is all in anticipation that Germany will bailout Greece and a dozen of other countries that are on the brink of defaulting. Sweet dreams. On the other end Are China and India which accounts for more than a half of world population. While their exports would collapse, their internal consumption would not suddenly dissappear. In other words, there is no doubt whatsoever that there are pending catastrophic failures which will lead to the real sharemarket crash (we have seen nothing before), more bailouts , etc. Not so much in Australia, because when 4bn+ of people in the rest of the world want coal, ore, grain, meat, etc from 20 m people who sit on that wealth - it is not that hard to weather any storm. So for us - massive deinvestment from shares, 0% interest rates, more stimulus, more expats fleeing back to Australia, more pressure on immigration - and no land to build housing in capital cities. It must become a tradition that Mr Keen (is he still in the rank of professor) walks to Mt Kosciusco every time property market adds another 40%. http://www.theage.com.au/business/web-alert--warning-on-crazy-house-prices-20100216-o4h5.html?comments=96 Michael's comment: Housing naysayers - message to you - you have lost. You are useless bunch who is incapable of doing what millions of Australians have done - buying a home. Give other people one reason why they shall even consider listening to such monumental failures like yourselves. And tatoo it on your forehead - to see any price falls you need at least 10% excess housing stock. Never going to happen, as in major capitals where 95% of our population lives there is no available land. These are just some... This guys is a complete fwit. author message kodiak  Re: Too much housing related news everyday on: Sat 13 of Mar, 2010 [01:10 UTC] Take heart, Parrot. I believe that the standard of living in Australia was far superior 15 years ago compared with today, but you have to compare living standards to the places where the migrants are coming from - and most of those places are much worse off than Australia. Personally, I find my own standard of living is probably flat coming from New York City. I have beach, golf, etc., but the costs seem as high or even higher, if that seems possible. Years ago that was not the case. author message Parrotile  Re: Too much housing related news everyday on: Sat 13 of Mar, 2010 [07:11 UTC] HI Kodiak: Thanks for your thoughts, and I agree that the Aussie standard of living USED to be the best in the West (with the lowest number of hours worked, for the highest wages. These halcyon days have now gone, and we're now right at the bottom of the pile for available leisure time / favourable work / life balamce. Whilst it is true that we are a more attractive home than many emergent economies, it is unfortunately also true that the better qualified (and so more desireable" standard of Migrant is very able to pick and choose where they settle - and there are now many places with comparable overall living qualities to Australia, where the cost of buying a house is far less. Any reduction in "attractiveness" results in a reduction in migratory interest, and this seems to be the problem, certainly in Healthcare, where our RNs can get better terms & conditions elsewhere, and so they simply stay for a minimal period to gain "experience", then off they go. The same problem seems to afflict other areas (Imaging / Radiology, Pathology, Pharmacy), and with a very demanding, increasingly unhealthy ageing population there's surely trouble just around the corner. As to JC1982's comments re "Michael of Sydney" - he DOES seem to have an agenda (mainly berating those who are unable to save for a humunguous house deposit! I particularly like the get a weekend job suggestion - with the slow but steady reduction in observed working hours, there aren't that many weekend jobs these days (or rather jobs that pay a reasonable rate). If anyone's planning to work a 48 or 56-hour week and remain sane I'd REALLY like to know just how you do it! Maybe we should all just relocate to the US - LOVE the housing prices over there! author message pb123  Re: Too much housing related news everyday on: Sat 13 of Mar, 2010 [08:14 UTC] Its simple , if people dont buy houses it becomes easier to relocate. If people find value for money (in terms of job ops , taxation) elsewhere they just move especially when they dont have to deal with headache of selling or renting. I know some people move inspite but not having a baggage makes it easier. But having said that mobility is applicable only for the well trained professionals , low skilled workers are usally stuck. if you really look at it, the only countries that allow active migration are the english speaking nations. Two of which are in recession the other one is a bit cold , w:r:t NZ I am not sure what kind of jobs are available there. But Australia really is not an attactive place for high end professionals, its mostly middle rung, similar to NZ. Well the point is Australia is attractive for middle rung professionals and some type of workers. But if they cant plant their roots , there is a chance of them leaving if things look better elsewhere. But since only middle rung professionals come into Australia we shouldnt expective any great productivity improvements , because these kinds of professionals are employable but not "employment creators" author message pb123  Re: Too much housing related news everyday on: Sat 13 of Mar, 2010 [08:17 UTC] ..renting out their property author message pennypacker  Re: Too much housing related news everyday on: Sat 13 of Mar, 2010 [13:13 UTC] I heard that 'Michael of Sydney' is Michael Lin @ Ray White Eastwood: http://www.raywhiteeastwood.com.au/our-team.aspx The info was passed to me from a former GHPC member. I have no idea if it is correct. author message pb123  Re: Too much housing related news everyday on: Sat 13 of Mar, 2010 [14:42 UTC] Just about bed time and another one http://www.theage.com.au/business/housing-is-hotting-up-but-melbourne-will-stay-the-cooler-city-20100313-q4z5.html

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