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Forums->Australian Bubble Forum->I am reading...

erutangis	I am reading...
	I just thought it might be interesting to have a thread where we can talk about what we are all reading. Sometimes you don't tend to leave your favourite haunts and this might help people point out some interesting stuff.
	on: Mon 18 of Jan, 2010 [04:03 UTC] reads: 7564

Posted messages Messages 10 20 30 All Style Plain Threaded Headers Only Sort Newest first Oldest first Find author message erutangis  Re: I am reading... on: Mon 18 of Jan, 2010 [04:05 UTC] I found this interesting last week. It takes a look at what is happening in the bond market, and the very large challenges that the US will face in the next year. Bond Vigilantes author message hojusaram  Re: I am reading... on: Mon 18 of Jan, 2010 [05:54 UTC] I assume like erutangis many people on this site are interested in global marcro economics, and the effect this has on housing in OZ among other things. In regards to that what site do you find interesting to gather/fing out this info ? author message pb123  Re: I am reading... on: Mon 18 of Jan, 2010 [06:23 UTC] I have been reading the chartalist position on economics spearheaded by Randall Wray , Warren Mosler , William Mitchell etc. There position or more specifically Warrens is "MOSLER'S LAW: There is no financial crisis so deep that a sufficiently large tax cut or spending increase cannot deal with it." I have also been asking people around about how issues on affordable housing is dealt with in their countries doctorhousingbubble.com Doctor Housing bubble is an excellant blog about the state of the US market itulip.com Commentaries by Eric Janszen on the Kapoom Theory debtdeflation.com Some excellant commentators on alternative view of housing affordablility zerohedge.com Bit dense , some are borderline conspiracy theories Andy Xie - The bearish commentator about China author message bps  Re: I am reading... on: Mon 18 of Jan, 2010 [06:52 UTC] "The Emperor's New Clothes" by Hans Christian Andersen An Emperor who cares for nothing but his wardrobe hires two weavers who promise him the finest suit of clothes from a fabric invisible to anyone who is unfit for his position or "just hopelessly stupid". The Emperor cannot see the cloth himself, but pretends that he can for fear of appearing unfit for his position or stupid; his ministers do the same. When the swindlers report that the suit is finished, they dress him in mime and the Emperor then marches in procession before his subjects. A child in the crowd calls out that the Emperor is wearing nothing at all and the cry is taken up by others. The Emperor cringes, suspecting the assertion is true, but holds himself up proudly and continues the procession. author message erutangis  Re: I am reading... on: Mon 18 of Jan, 2010 [10:50 UTC] This ones a rehash of Steve Keens story a little while ago. It always impresses me when people from other countries notice too.... MISH on housing bubbles author message NM  Re: I am reading... on: Tue 19 of Jan, 2010 [03:22 UTC] There are some excellent financial/investing podcasts out there that you can listen to while driving, walking, waiting in queues, mowing the lawn etc. Basically you can fill all the dull moments in your life by piping all sorts of interesting information into your brain – if you don’t have an ipod or other mp3 player I strongly recommend you invest in one. My top 5 podcasts relevant to property/finance/economics include: Bloomberg on the Economy – typically several casts a day with leading economists, sometimes including people worth listening to such as Mark Faber, Nassim Taleb, Stephen Roach. Many you can delete and forget (Joseph Abbey Cohen, anyone from the investment banking sector, various ex-US Feds etc.) Stratfor - a short, daily digest of geo-political events and trends, very high quality from a leading group of analysts. McAlvany? Weekly Commentary – from a small US money manager with an Austrianish outlook on the economy. Very intelligent analysis covering the economy, markets, politics and geo-politics. Financial Sense Newshour - as above, with weekly commentary from a range of economists, technical traders and commodity experts. Also weekly book reviews. Jim Puplava and his crew have made some excellent market calls over the years. Three to four hours of programming released every Saturday. Gold Radio FM – Small Canadian crew offering daily interviews with a crew of non-mainstream commentators. I recommend the weekly segments with market historian Bob Hoye and technician Tim Wood. Again some great market calls over the years. I particularly enjoy Mr Hoye’s analysis of current events in the context of several hundred years of market history. Great perspective. And as a slightly off beat bonus: The Kunstler Cast – with that old Peak Oil theorist James Howard Kunstler. You will enjoy Jame’s consistently funny, highly eloquent and dire reflections on the “tragic comedy of suburban sprawl”. Well worth going through the whole back catalogue and picking out some of the highlights - such as his tour of the local shopping mall, reflections on his own Baby Boomer generation and the episodes where he reflects on town planning in various parts of the world using Google Street View. You can download these from each website or subscribe via itunes. It’s all free. author message erutangis  Re: I am reading... on: Tue 19 of Jan, 2010 [09:56 UTC] Thanks for those tips NM... I'll work through them. While we're talking podcasts I found the following recently and it's good too. Frisby’s Bulls And Bears author message hojusaram  Re: I am reading... on: Tue 19 of Jan, 2010 [10:55 UTC] Well watching actually .. but A highly amusing and informative show to watch is the "The Oracle with Max Keiser".. You can just search google video to get a taste of this show if you haven't seen it before. Max is basically a raving looney but his take on global economics is hilarious. And once he gets going he really starts froathing at the mouth.. author message erutangis  Re: I am reading... on: Tue 19 of Jan, 2010 [12:13 UTC] Love Max! At 4 minutes Aussie debt binge At 1:45 the world economy is deep in SHIPS author message squirrell  Re: I am reading... on: Wed 20 of Jan, 2010 [11:24 UTC] check out interest.co.nz for a very active community (70/30 bears/bulls), good analysis - the most recent issue being the likely tax changes in NZ re property. author message erutangis  Re: I am reading... on: Mon 25 of Jan, 2010 [03:51 UTC] This is an interesting read. He does reference Oz, and suggests we will do ok because we have less public debt. Maybe he doesn't know about our private debt and property bubble. Bob Janjuah author message pinky  Re: I am reading... on: Mon 25 of Jan, 2010 [05:46 UTC] You can really learn how you are being lied to by reading this book. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Lie_with_Statistics http://www.bookworm.com.au/Book/How-to-Lie-with-Statistics-9780140136296.aspx 100% satisfaction guaranteed!! author message erutangis  Re: I am reading... on: Mon 25 of Jan, 2010 [23:36 UTC] Dan Denning suggests that reality is giving most Aussies a wide berth. Majority of Australians believe house prices will rise... author message erutangis  Re: I am reading... on: Thu 28 of Jan, 2010 [08:32 UTC] I just noticed this. Despite claims to the contrary the US housing market is still in a world of pain. US House Sales Tumble author message Parrotile  Re: I am reading... on: Fri 29 of Jan, 2010 [01:42 UTC] Well Pinky. "There are Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics" - seems to sum it up nicely! As to the majority of Aussies thinking house prices will rise - they are actually right - prices will, over the LONG TERM, track inflation reasonably closely, but right now, I'm afraid that the only way is down, and the greater the disconnect between the "Rule of 3" (income vs. house prices), the greater the fall (and consequential greater negative overshoot). Although no-one in their right mind would remotely consider buying a house right now, the "Marketing Gurus" are still banging on about there never being a better time to buy - why? - because their income is entirely dependent on people buying. Media reporting is about as impartial as a Ford or Holden ad., and there's a deliberate discrimination against comments that "rock the boat". Newver forget the old rule - the ONLY time it's worth renting the money to buy a house is when renting money's cheaper than paying rent - and right now that is definitely NOT the case. From a long term investment p/e viewpoint Agribusiness seems a very good earner, even with the servicing costs. Emissions trading may well make Agri. even more attractive in the future! author message hojusaram  Re: I am reading... on: Fri 29 of Jan, 2010 [06:57 UTC] I am reading... http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Will-the-housing-market-cool-pd20100129-25VS7?OpenDocument&src=blb Our good friend CJ, getting fried on his "damn lies and stats" on business spectator. Check out the comments.. Hilarious... author message Clawhammer  Re: I am reading... on: Fri 29 of Jan, 2010 [09:01 UTC] I am reading; "Guide to investing in Gold & Silver" by Michael Maloney, 2008. Acording to the spiel, Maloney is a precious metals advisor to Robert Kiyosaki. It takes a broad view of Macro-economics, sets out the lessons learned by those that have been successful and how those that haven't (cough Bernanke cough) are repeating historical patterns. It's a good starter for me, the fundamentals that effect commodities seem to be much simpler to read for the stockmarket. e.g. despite the release of the iPad, Apple stocks have only climbed 1%. I would have thought they'd go through the roof on the back of the iPod and iPhone... but, there you have it! author message ancientsong  Re: Re: I am reading... on: Sat 01 of May, 2010 [00:37 UTC] > I am reading; > > "Guide to investing in Gold & Silver" by Michael Maloney, 2008. > Acording to the spiel, Maloney is a precious metals advisor to Robert Kiyosaki. > > It takes a broad view of Macro-economics, sets out the lessons learned by those that have been successful and how those that haven't (cough Bernanke cough) are repeating historical patterns. > > It's a good starter for me, the fundamentals that effect commodities seem to be much simpler to read for the stockmarket. e.g. despite the release of the iPad, Apple stocks have only climbed 1%. I would have thought they'd go through the roof on the back of the iPod and iPhone... but, there you have it! author message pennypacker  Re: I am reading... on: Sat 30 of Jan, 2010 [14:05 UTC] hojusaram that was awesome, the way those folk in the comment section tore apart Joye's hopeless attempt at analysis was very entertaining Also CJ appears to have taken to placing comments under an assumed name (in addition to the entries under his own name), quite funny: Clay Posted 30 Jan 2010 11:51 AM Leon you sound obssessed with Chris. I slap you on the back for one point mate. He is a great man. As for getting it wrong pal, Chris has got it more right than any other commentator in the country. If this is your position, you keep on being proved wrong!! Hahaha. Love that. Expert gets it right. People cry about and claim he is always wrong. Good one mate. Keep on posting your comments so i can laugh. Nice to know there are guy like you that I can trade with. author message erutangis  Re: I am reading... on: Tue 02 of Feb, 2010 [22:08 UTC] Pretty darn good spray by MISH overnight.... Pool of greter housing fools in Australia finall runs out. author message Clawhammer  Re: I am reading... on: Wed 03 of Feb, 2010 [22:31 UTC] More news from the US (i.e. the future) their RE dead cat bounce is over and the market is tanking even further! http://www.cnbc.com/id/35216537 author message erutangis  Re: I am reading... on: Sat 06 of Feb, 2010 [06:32 UTC] Anyone know what this is about? Secret bankers summit author message Clawhammer  Re: I am reading... on: Tue 09 of Feb, 2010 [14:35 UTC] Now I'm onto "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" by Rober Kiyosaki. I don't know about you guys...but I'm really struggling with this one. The writting style is 'stilted' and akward and I really just wish he'd get on with it. I'm about 2/3rds through it and the fact that he made the lion's share of his wealth out of property wasn't much benefit to me in the present environment. But he does make some good points about changing one's mindset when it comes to jobs and money! Anyone read it? opinions? author message DeloryTheApe  Re: Re: I am reading... on: Tue 09 of Feb, 2010 [22:49 UTC] > Now I'm onto "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" by Rober Kiyosaki. > > I don't know about you guys...but I'm really struggling with this one. The writting style is 'stilted' and akward and I really just wish he'd get on with it. > > I'm about 2/3rds through it and the fact that he made the lion's share of his wealth out of property wasn't much benefit to me in the present environment. But he does make some good points about changing one's mindset when it comes to jobs and money! > > Anyone read it? opinions? Kiyosaki's RDPD was a bit of a 'fad' back in the late 90's/early 2000's. In my mind, there is a link between this book and the acceleration of the Oz property bubble - although possibly this is just circumstantial/coincidental timing. I think a lot of people read it and heard the message 'you can get rich by buying lots of property' - rather than the message 'you can be wealthy if you use your time and money wisely'. Rather than reading the book and then investing wisely, a lot of people I know read it and then bought property (at stupid prices). If I recall, the first chapter of his first book has a story about the stupidity of negative gearing..... I guess a lot of people who read the book must have missed that one! I am sure Kiyosaki has made a lot more money in the last decade by selling books, seminars, board games and off-loading houses into a rising market, than most of the people who bought his books. author message DeloryTheApe  Re: Re: Re: I am reading... on: Thu 18 of Mar, 2010 [11:18 UTC] > > Now I'm onto "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" by Rober Kiyosaki. > > > > I don't know about you guys...but I'm really struggling with this one. The writting style is 'stilted' and akward and I really just wish he'd get on with it. > > > > I'm about 2/3rds through it and the fact that he made the lion's share of his wealth out of property wasn't much benefit to me in the present environment. But he does make some good points about changing one's mindset when it comes to jobs and money! > > > > Anyone read it? opinions? > > > Kiyosaki's RDPD was a bit of a 'fad' back in the late 90's/early 2000's. In my mind, there is a link between this book and the acceleration of the Oz property bubble - although possibly this is just circumstantial/coincidental timing. > > I think a lot of people read it and heard the message 'you can get rich by buying lots of property' - rather than the message 'you can be wealthy if you use your time and money wisely'. Rather than reading the book and then investing wisely, a lot of people I know read it and then bought property (at stupid prices). > > If I recall, the first chapter of his first book has a story about the stupidity of negative gearing..... I guess a lot of people who read the book must have missed that one! > > I am sure Kiyosaki has made a lot more money in the last decade by selling books, seminars, board games and off-loading houses into a rising market, than most of the people who bought his books. > His books are generally on the skills/knowledge/etc.. needed to become a successful entrepreneur/financially independent. They are primarily designed to teach financial literacy, and give insight into the thought patterns of an entrepreneur. A good read for challenging the 'employee' mentality in us all. I recommend borrowing a few from the library and see if you like them. author message erutangis  Re: I am reading... on: Fri 19 of Feb, 2010 [22:26 UTC] I'm reading Breakfast with Dave. You have to subscribe to it but it looks pretty interesting. You have to subscribe though. Breakfast with Dave author message erutangis  Re: I am reading... on: Mon 08 of Mar, 2010 [22:53 UTC] This is an interesting read. No surprises, but sometimes it's nice to know you're not alone... The Debt Bubble has to burst author message hojusaram  Re: I am reading... on: Tue 09 of Mar, 2010 [11:30 UTC] I am reading. Why "market to fantasy" valuations of US banks assets is absolutely scary. http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2049-All-You-Need-To-Know-About-Bank-Balance-Sheet-Fraud.html how may zeroes in a trillion again ??? author message hojusaram  Oops... on: Tue 09 of Mar, 2010 [11:30 UTC] ..... author message erutangis  Re: I am reading... on: Fri 23 of Apr, 2010 [22:54 UTC] There has been lots of interesting stuff happening of late. First exhibit is this article on zerohedge that rates Australia as very vulnerable due to our massive housing bubble. Secondly, I'm not sure how many of you subscribe to "meals with Dave" but if you don't get on over there and sign up. In todays edition he explains that the only reason Canada has missed the GFC has been it's housing bubble. Clearly the parallels are strong with Australia. If you sign up now you probably won't get todays but if you're interested PM me with your email and I'll get it to you. author message erutangis  Re: I am reading... on: Sat 24 of Apr, 2010 [23:31 UTC] I just found this article on the residential market future. I actually think it was reasonably objective too. The stuff about bears being forced into the market hurt to read a little but the rest was pretty good IMHO. author message aardvark  Re: I am reading... on: Sun 25 of Apr, 2010 [02:51 UTC] Article by Colonial First State Global Asset Mngt (CFSGAM cited by Bloomberg as potential joint venture with Chinese wealth funds (CIC?) scoping RE here). Interesting overall, inc ‘Chinese investment in Australia’ & ‘Resource allocation’. Paper written as a kind of travelogue, lots of insights into China. 'Perspectives from China and the implications for Australia' (November 2009) http://www.cfsgam.com.au/uploadedFiles/CFSGAM/PdfResearch/091109%20Perspectives%20from%20China.pdf author message aardvark  Re: I am reading... on: Fri 30 of Apr, 2010 [21:28 UTC] Dailyreckoning has article worth a read, at least for 2 interesting charts – ‘Rent seeking in Canberra’: http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/rent-seeking-in-canberra/2010/04/30/ Chart 1 – ‘Household Credit 2009 in %GDP’ shows how exposed the economy is to private debt. Chart 2 – ‘Credit to Household versus Corporations’ is also a shocker. The banks are not supporting small business but appear happy to hog-tie as many FHB as possible, use whatever means. My favourite is ubiquitous ‘Equity-Enemy’ loans - designed to pull down the unwary in the under-tow of negative equity (if it ever hits the fan). Article also, comments on the pickle recent FHB are in: “ . . Australia's preference for variable rate loans coupled with central bankers rigging the price of money can turn a whole economy into a giant exercise in speculation. You make the biggest financial decision of your life based on factors that are influenced by unpredictable changes in the cost of money and the rate of inflation. Sounds like how you'd design a system to put people into debt to the bank and keep them there for decades.” (end excerpt) author message SED  Re: Re: I am reading... on: Sat 01 of May, 2010 [01:55 UTC] interesting numbers: looks like Australian business started deleveraging while individuals continue to pile on debt. all the while government (and opposition) do bugger all to prevent individuals holding the bag when the music stops author message jazzwoman  Re: I am reading... on: Fri 30 of Apr, 2010 [23:18 UTC] I was reading through the DR article linked by aardvark. The last bit made me really thinking about things: So no, we're not trying to be clever and revel in the demise of the financial system. But we do think if you want survive the collapse of this system - a system based on debt, unsustainable finances, and a rotten moral premise of theft - you had better be willing to face facts and then make a plan and then make a life. If you don't, you're going to be the real loser... (end excerpt) OK - I am sorry to bother you with my question but for me you are all more "experts" in economy as I ever will be. Therefore I would really like to know what your plans are. Look I know that you don't want to be held responsible for anything that you might say - I certainly won't. I just highly respect your opinion because I do learn a lot by just reading through your comments. I am interested in what your plans are if the system really does fail. Face it - we all believe more or less that as it is right now it is an unsustainable system - so all of you are thinking ahead! I know that you do, because you are all clever. Now that we believe this what is the plan to survive? What is to do with money in the bank - invest a bit in gold - lock it up into a government guaranteed Term deposit? Bring it out of the country put it underneath the pillow... what is the plan?... or ultimately invest it in property author message nsw2206  Re: Re: I am reading... on: Sat 01 of May, 2010 [02:02 UTC] I'm thinking shares in gold/silver miners. once the market tanks that is... author message Parrotile  Re: I am reading... on: Sat 01 of May, 2010 [02:20 UTC] Depends on how bad things might get. If it's a minor "readjustment" precious metals are traditionally the safe haven of the well to do, however we could be entering a completely new era, where our present value-sets are less applicable. If things DO get REALLY bad, then the obvious places to invest are those associated with our "needs" rather than "wants" - i.e. energy, water and food. Whilst I'm not suggesting for one minute that we're on a one way journey to a post-apocalyptic "New Dark Ages", it's never a bad thing to be able to directly provide for your and your families' needs - self-sufficiency went a LONG way towards keeping the population fed in the UK during the 2nd World War, and if income becomes tight, every $ you don't have to spend on food in Woolies or Coles is a $ that can be spent on more strategically useful investments. (You'll know when things have got really bad - it's when the local Councils start digging up the Ovals and Golf Courses, and converting them into PRODUCTIVE arable land!!) author message aardvark  Re: I am reading... on: Sat 01 of May, 2010 [06:45 UTC] SED, you are right "looks like Australian business started deleveraging while individuals continue to pile on debt". Made a chart on how investor debt (over 90% is for 2nd hand property) is weighing on the wider economy and producing basically nothing*. No work, no houses, no nothing, except higher debt & therefore lower yields. (*actually, $1 in $14 is used for new construction, so almost nothing) http://bubblepedia.net.au/tiki-download_file.php?fileId=47 Jazzwoman – Some people are clear-headed enough to see the housing market is totally rigged: the govt has Ponzified the market for the selfish benefit of banks and vested interests - and they expect the next generation to pick up the tab. My plan is simple: share my knowledge on this matter, however incomplete that may be. As far as the ‘system’ failing – If it fails, meh. I did what I could. author message aardvark  Re: I am reading... on: Sat 01 of May, 2010 [06:54 UTC] This article appeared a few days ago in the ‘Headlines’ list, worth a look of you haven't already done so: “Until housing is seen as a human right rather than a speculative kite, the housing supply analysis will always have one hand behind its back.” http://www.earthsharing.org.au/2010/04/28/one-handed-housing-supply/ author message erutangis  Re: I am reading... on: Sat 01 of May, 2010 [21:34 UTC] I saw this link on Mish to "Patrick". Anyway, I had a bit of a poke around his site, and watched the video. He's pretty cool - it all makes sense to me. I enjoyed it. MISH on Patrick author message erutangis  Re: I am reading... on: Mon 03 of May, 2010 [03:43 UTC] Anyone else see this? Housing tipped for implosion. author message kodiak  Re: I am reading... on: Mon 03 of May, 2010 [03:59 UTC] I'd buy long dated, wayyyyy out of the money put options on CBA and Westpac. Keep some fiat in a non-bank safety deposit box. Banks can have "holidays". Gold can be confiscated (and it's a dangerous trade imo, anyway) and if you're really in a position that you think you'll need it, you'll need lead, water and food instead. There won't be any bank runs. Depositors will be saved. Bond holders will be saved as well. Common won't go to 0, but it could get pretty close if there is a substantial crash in housing. author message aardvark  Re: I am reading... on: Mon 03 of May, 2010 [11:22 UTC] Article by Stephen Long – Rejecting negative gearing changes is 'cowardice' - http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/05/03/2889223.htm String of criticisms on flimsy Labor response to Taxreview across range of recommendations. Summary: “One wonders why they're in government if they're not going to do anything." author message erutangis  Re: I am reading... on: Sun 09 of May, 2010 [19:41 UTC] This is interesting.... Rising proces and falling listings creating a sellers market???? author message pb123  Re: I am reading... on: Sun 09 of May, 2010 [21:28 UTC] A quote from this article "It's a seller's market," Mr Light said. "Interest rates are rising, property prices are becoming unaffordable for most people, and, in certain circumstances it's best to sell and wait for things to cool off." Imagine the interest rates were low like last year, the quote would then read "It's a seller's market," Mr Light said. "Interest rates are all at time low, affordability is very high for those looking to get into the market, it's best to sell and take advantage of the high demand out there." For this is guy its always going to be a sellers market. author message homes4aussies  Re: I am reading... on: Sun 09 of May, 2010 [23:46 UTC] Thanks for drawing our attention to that quote, pb123 Yep, always a good time for RE agents to take listings on their books Funny thing is, on this occasion the advice might just help both sides - the early movers will get out early in the correction, and the weight of listings will play a big part in prices becoming more rational. As we have been discussing on other threads, another confirmation of the poor health of the canary in the coalmine "In Brisbane, the 64 auction listings were double the number for the previous Saturday, with the clearance rate at 25 per cent compared with 16 per cent previously" Auction clearance rates below 1 in 4! And a rental vacancy rate of 3.7%!! author message erutangis  Re: I am reading... on: Sun 23 of May, 2010 [20:41 UTC] Sometimes, you need a laugh. author message dan  Re: I am reading... on: Tue 25 of May, 2010 [12:40 UTC] "Enough" by John Naish. Enough food enough stuff enough information enough choice enough happiness and eventually of course enough book. Full of wonderful insights, highly recommended. I love the stuff about being thankful - trying to think in terms of how much you would want what you have now if you did not have it, rather than how much you really want one a little bit faster. Gotta go, my new car is about to be delivered and I have to research the next one... author message aardvark  Re: I am reading... on: Fri 28 of May, 2010 [08:16 UTC] dan, witty car segway. Reading article by IMF economist, Prakash Loungani: Home Prices Still Have Far to Fall . . . HTTP://PSYCHOLOGYOFTHECALL.BLOGSPOT.COM/2010/05/IMF-ECONOMIST-ARGUES-HOME-PRICES-STILL.HTML (same article linked from House Price Bubble Headlines, but online-WSJ wants a subscription to read it. tell them they're dreaming - clowns) author message erutangis  Re: I am reading... on: Sun 06 of Jun, 2010 [04:20 UTC] This guy here just summarises exactly how I feel about this mess. Satyajit Das on pass the debt parcel Page: 1/2  [next]

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